Atmospheric Circulation Drivers of Extreme High Water Level Events at Foggy Island Bay, Alaska

The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change enhancing hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region home to offshore oil/gas activities. Foggy Island Bay one along the Beaufort Sea with planned development that will need account for changing climate. High water levels impact infrastructure through erosion flooding hazards. In this study, 21 high level events exceeding top 95th percentile were identified at gauge in Prudhoe Bay, (adjacent Bay) over 1990–2018. All events, many non-extreme days elevated levels, associated strong westerly winds according station records. Storm systems generally found be a key driver downscaled reanalysis storm track data. A dynamically global climate model projection CMIP5 indicated wind may become more frequent as storms strengthen have longer durations by 2100 region. Coupled anticipated continued decline ice, experience next ~80 years.